Geopolitical and horny; The Horn of Africa to be exact. Kieran Do delves into the controversial deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland.
Yes, while “horny” and “geopolitics” are not usually words associated with each other, in the case of the developing situation in the Horn of Africa, they simply couldn’t be more appropriate. For those of us with their horns blunt: on January 1st 2024, Ethiopia signed a controversial deal with the pseudo-state of Somaliland, agreeing to recognise it in return for leasing a portion of its coast for 50 years. This landmark deal, which angered literally every other nation on Earth, sets a new precedent in geopolitics, but why?
First, let’s wind the clock back. 300,000 years ago, humans originated from the Horn; no, that’s not relevant but it’s a cool fact. What’s relevant is that the Horn of Africa has always been an epicentre of trade, culture and conflict, and today is no different. Nestled in the heart of the Horn, Ethiopia is a significant regional player, however, their position was rocked into uncertainty after their only coastal region; Eritrea, vied for independence in 1961. After a horrible 29-year war for independence, Eritrea successfully broke off and was so pissed off at Ethiopia that they outlawed any Ethiopian trade through their ports, effectively landlocking their former partner.
As naval trade is the heart of any nation’s economy, Ethiopia looked to her other options. To the east lay Somalia, a country so troubled it makes North Korea look idyllic. Lacking effective control of most of their capital, much less their entire nation, Somalia has been embroiled in a civil war since 1991, has a heavy pirate presence, and not only takes the highest rank in the Fragile States Index but also the world’s lowest rank in the Human Development Index. In other words, not great for trade. Otherwise, the only other Horn country was Djibouti, a seemingly ideal option. A stable nation that was already a trade hub with great ports. The catch was that in knowing Ethiopia’s lack of options, Djibouti charged an extortionately large fee for all Ethiopian trade, a fee so expensive it’s roughly four times the entire GDP of Somalia.
The solution? An unorthodox one; Ethiopia will recognise Somaliland and use their ports for far cheaper. The reason why Somaliland is often overlooked is that it’s not actually a country, at least according to all 193 member states of the United Nations, but instead is the largest unrecognised state in the world. Contrastingly, Somaliland enjoys greater stability, democracy, wealth, health and education than their ‘owner country’ which calls into question what exactly determines a nation’s legitimacy.
It’s safe to say this deal is a very controversial move. For Somalia, they view it as an attack on their sovereignty and have even gone as far as to imply war over the completion of this deal, as an act of ‘self-defence’. The reason the recognition of Somaliland would be an outrageous move is if a country is allowed to self-proclaim independence and ‘get away with it’, it sets a new legal precedent that implies that any self-proclaimed independence movement within a country could be legitimate, this raises fears with China over Taiwan, Spain over Catalonia, and Iraq over Kurdistan to name a few. Shaking the conventions of the Westphalian system which has stood for hundreds of years, this new change could represent the beginning of a bold new era. All from one Horny agreement.
Comments